When the line up for the semifinals of the World Cup was confirmed, the technology and people behind the football rankings system could allow themselves a little smile.
The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking is produced using the Elo model, which adds or subtracts points following matches based on relative team strength; match importance; match result and expected match result. Before the World Cup began France, Argentina, Spain and England were the top four, and in an apparent triumph for technology they were the four teams to reach the semifinals – the first time in history that the top four ranked teams reached that stage.
India and England’s T20 cricket sides went into their recent five match series as first and second in the rankings respectively. Following an impressive 4-0 win in the series for England, they have moved to number 1 in the World, again reflecting the accuracy of rankings models (and probably saving Brendan McCullum’s job as coach of the short-form format!).
The international rugby world rankings use a similar system to football, based on a points exchanged system. Over the inaugural two weeks of the new Nations Championship, twelve matches have been played and every single result reflected the relative rankings of the two teams. This is particularly impressive given the significant advantage playing at home has in rugby and the fact that all the northern hemisphere sides have travelled to the other side of the world to play. Factor in the fact that the NH sides are also at the end of a grueling season and it makes the accuracy of the rankings even more eye-opening.
Naturally, in a seeded competition like the FIFA World Cup, where the top teams are deliberately put on different sides of the draw to avoid them playing each other in the early rounds of the competition, it makes it easier to end up with the best four teams at the end.
Tennis also relies heavily on the rankings system to produce seeds for the Grand Slam tournaments. At the culmination of the Wimbledon tournament, the men’s final was number one seed against number two, with the number one Sinner triumphing against Zverev. In yet another success for the rankings system, the world number one was expected to triumph over Zverev, the world number three. With Alcarez (the current number two) injured, Zverev got the second seeding, and after his exploits at Wimbledon he will replace Alcarez as number two next week when the rankings are re-calculated.
The apparent accuracy of the rankings, coupled with the biased seeding system, makes Arthur Fery’s achievement in reaching the tournament’s semifinal even more extraordinary. Entering as a wildcard, Fery was ranked 114th in the world going into Wimbledon, but went on a fantastic journey defeating a number of seeded players before coming up against the in-form Zverev. His journey certainly defied the rankings, but the machine has acknowledged its mistake, with Fery jumping up to number 36 in the world based on his performances over the last fortnight.
So, while the rankings systems in sport are impressively accurate, they can be defied by performances of real grit and determination. I will be holding onto that thought as number 11 in the rugby rankings (Wales) faces off against the undisputed number one team in South Africa this weekend – as Fery has proved, the rankings don’t always reflect reality!!
David Little is a Partner at Bishop & Sewell in our expert Sports Law and Corporate & Commercial
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The above is accurate as at 15 July 2026.
The information above may be subject to change. The content of this note should not be considered legal advice, and each matter should be considered on a case-by-case basis.
