Relying on the new manager bounce is very much a gamble - Bishop & Sewell - Law Firm
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The November International break for domestic football is often referred to as a graveyard period for managers, and this year the trend has continued with four Championship clubs currently searching for new gaffers.

Sandwiched between the start of the season and the busy Christmas fixture list, the November break comes three months into the season. For Championship teams that means 15 games done – enough time for any trends to become patterns, particularly losing ones.

One of the casualties this year is Alan Sheehan from my hometown club of Swansea City. The Swans parted company with Sheehan following a heavy home defeat that left them 18th in the league, only having won four out of their 15 matches.

The previous week Southampton (17th) sacked their Manager Will Still and Norwich (23rd) said goodbye to Liam Manning. A fourth club in the league is also managerless following Rob Edwards’ decision to leave Middlesbrough to join Premier League Wolves following its decision to sack Vitor Pereira having failed to win any of its first 10 league matches this season.

For owners and Boards, the international break provides a perfect opportunity to make changes. Two weeks without fans in the stadium, time to get the players out of the limelight, and an opportunity to work behind the scenes gives them the space to make changes. It is long enough into the season to have given the incumbent a good crack, with 15 games enough to average out misfortune, bad refereeing and poor individual form. It also gives enough time left in the season to rectify relegation-threatening situations – and owners rely on the legendary ‘new manager bounce’.

However, sackings in November also bring great challenges. Any shortlist of potential replacement candidates is likely to feature many of the same names, with four clubs at the same level searching for a new leader. While there is a two-week break, appointments do not generally happen quickly, so any new manager will have very little time with the players on the training ground to make any radical changes to style or system.

Perhaps the biggest challenge is what do owners do if the rot continues with the new manager. If results don’t start to improve immediately through the busy festive period, do they entrust the new, as yet unsuccessful manager, with a substantial budget to spend in the January transfer window, or do they double down and replace again, frustrating fans and putting pressure on themselves for not getting the appointments right.

But what do the stats say about the impact of changing managers mid-season? Last season there were 30 managerial changes in Europe’s top five leagues. Analysing the results from the five matches preceding the managerial change and comparing those to the five matches following the appointment of a new manager shows that 72% of the clubs experienced the ‘new manager bounce’. Further analysis shows that when a club sacks a manager it is worth nearly an extra three points on average a season.

While three points may not seem a lot, it can often mean the difference between relegation and safety, and in today’s football market that can equate to £10s millions. But it is a gamble, and owners will be very aware of the fact – fingers crossed the Swans do not end up in the 28%!

Contact our Sports Law Solicitors

David Little is a Partner at Bishop & Sewell in our expert Sports Law and Corporate & Commercial teams.

If you would like to contact him, please call on either 07968 027343 or 020 7631 4141 or email: company@bishopandsewell.co.uk.

The above is accurate as at  20 November 2025.

The information above may be subject to change. The content of this note should not be considered legal advice, and each matter should be considered on a case-by-case basis.


Category: Blog | Date: 21st Nov 2025


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